How likely do Britons think it is that the USA will try to seize Greenland by military force?Very likely: 10%Fairly likely: 30%Fairly unlikely: 24%Very unlikely: 11%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

— YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2026-01-06T16:36:07.273Z

US discussing "range of options" to acquire Greenland including use of military, White House says https://t.co/iCQ6vdMl6x

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) January 6, 2026

This is not something the editor of political betting should admit to but am times I am losing my enthusiasm for betting on politics largely because of the mango Mussolini.

I am not sure the old assumptions on who will win bellwether seats like Watford, Stafford, and Amber Valley will work if Donald Trump starts invading Greenland, it’ll be the end of NATO, and that will change things in UK politics that I cannot fully be comprehend.

I expect defence spending would have to increase at the expense of public services and that will be sub-optimal for the government’s chances of re-election but I can also see Nigel Farage and Reform taking a hit for being so close to Donald Trump.

TSE