BREAKING: A brand new account on Polymarket just made a massive bet that China will invade Taiwan this year.

They will win $289K if they are correct.

Insider or gamble? pic.twitter.com/ohH4q7mUtE

— Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) January 5, 2026

On Saturday I pointed out the perceived insider betting on Polymarket regarding the events in Venezuela so this market is concerning.

I don’t think people in the UK fully appreciate the ramifications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is not a  quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing.

The industry I work in one of the known unknowns is the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the disruption to the world economy and the finances of the public, particularly if sanctions are put in place against in China, it might make the economic consequences of Covid-19 look benign.

D-Day was the largest seaborne invasion in history but a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be much more complicated due to the terrain and would require a lot more troops than Operation Neptune did.

TSE