Graveyard or launchpad?
Sir Laurie Magnus’s Report was kinder than it could have been to Angela Rayner. Rather worse than her not taking legal advice was that she lied about having taken such advice, a point his report ignored. The moral of her departure from government is simply this: pay attention to what your lawyer tells you. When he or she “recommends” something, they are not suggesting one pudding over another. A lawyer’s “Recommend” means: “You’d be a bloody fool not to do this! If you don’t and get caught, don’t come crying to us. Oh – and don’t even think of blaming us.”
Perhaps she should have asked the then Justice Secretary for advice – Shabana Mahmood – now Home Secretary and in a – potentially – good position for future advancement.
On 5 February this year I wrote this here: “Labour leader of the future: why not the Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Seems rather more sensible and competent than others.”
Why not her? Well, one big reason is that the Home Office job is a nightmare – a large unwieldy department described by a previous Home Secretary as “unfit for purpose”, covering some of the most difficult issues in politics even at the best of times – and these are very much not such times – with ample scope for problems to blow up, opportunities for the Minister to annoy pretty much every group in the country, difficult legal challenges at every turn and constant, usually ill-informed and unfair, scrutiny. Like many before her, she could do her very best but still fail.
And yet – it is precisely because the problems seem so intractable that any small improvements or achievements or even, frankly, basic competence could be presented as major successes, a welcome change in the direction of travel, a sense of someone having a grip and doing so calmly and without the cheesy, cringe-making announcements about flags, napkins, smashing gangs and the rest of it.
If she has ambitions for the leadership, how well placed is she?
– A woman – which ought not to matter but will.
– She’s unafraid to express her own views even when they go against the grain of party thinking (see her views on Assisted Dying and the FWS Supreme Court judgment).
– She refused to serve under Corbyn but has had quite a few varied roles in opposition which will surely have given her good links with the Labour electorate and useful experience.
– She has so far managed to balance her support for Palestinian rights with a strong stance against anti-semitism. (A march against anti-semitism is being held in London today.) (There has been criticism of past actions when she joined a protest against a shop selling Israeli goods but more recent responses from the Jewish community have been supportive of her efforts.)
– She notably abstained on the vote to declare Palestine Action a terror group. It will be interesting to see whether her new role changes her stance. (The government has been reluctant, for obvious reasons, to reveal the evidence underpinning that decision which has hampered its public response to some notably ill-informed criticism of its decision.)
– She is a Muslim who has said openly that her faith is an important part of who she is. This has not led to the sort of attacks Tim Farron and Kate Forbes have faced. But the key issue for the Labour electorate may be that she will be seen to have a way in – and a sensitivity – to an increasingly important Labour constituency (possibly helping to fend off Corbyn’s new party and/or the Greens) and may well be able to do so without alienating other groups. Much will depend on how she handles continuing protests, the grooming gangs public inquiry announced by Starmer but which has yet to appoint a Chair, the proposed Islamophobia definition, and issues of free speech. She may, ironically enough, be helped by some of the more unhinged responses to the very idea of a Muslim in such a position, by those conveniently forgetting there was a Tory Muslim Home Secretary 7 years ago without the sky falling in. Or indeed by the unhinged behaviour of some of the more extreme Muslim males who attack any Muslim not sharing their particular interpretations and demands.
– Her majority in her constituency has fallen to 3,741. But it is still bigger than, say, Wes Streeting’s.
– She is a relatively fresh face, certainly by comparison with Yvette Cooper, is in Parliament unlike Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan, seems calm under pressure, unlike Reeves, warm, unlike Bridget Phillipson, and less obviously ambitious, unlike Streeting.
– A difficult opponent for the Tories and Reform to attack, at least without unleashing some of the nastier elements in their parties.
– Will she stand for the role of Deputy Leader and, if not, who will that be?
One to watch. But still – the Home Office. Has Starmer put her there to help or hobble? Or to act as a lightning rod to protect himself? This last, undoubtedly, and even if she does a decent job, his sacking of Ian Murray (from the Cabinet), demotion of David Lammy (while making sure the next Deputy Leader doesn’t automatically become Deputy PM) and shunting of Cooper into overseas travel and diplomatic chit-chat a week before the visit of the Israeli President shows how ruthless (cruel even) he can be.
Meanwhile listen to your lawyer, remember the perils of a false economy and don’t, for God’s sake, lie about what you have and have not done.
Cyclefree