By 43% to 37%, Britons would rather the next election resulted in a Labour government under Keir Starmer than a Reform UK government under Nigel Farageyougov.co.uk/politics/art…

— YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-09-04T09:11:36.537Z

Britons tend to think that a Reform UK government would do a bad job of running the countryGood job: 24%Average job: 16%Bad job: 49%yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

— YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-09-04T09:11:36.538Z

Despite being potentially four years away, some people, particularly on social media (I know) think Reform will win the next election, I have my doubts, for the following reasons

1. Labour are much more coaltionable than Reform, who are very uncoaltionable, this means Labour would receive tactical voting to stop Reform winning seats and the voters would vote for other parties to stop Reform winning where Labour aren’t in contention. Under first past the post then anything is possible on low vote shares spread evenly among several parties.
2. The economy

As we can see from the above polling from YouGov (which is from a longer series of posts) that voters would prefer a Labour/Starmer led government rather than a Reform/Farage led government after the next election. We saw this kind of polling between 2010 and 2015 when Labour often led by double digits yet a government led by David Cameron was the choice of a plurality of voters.

Secondly on the economy, there’s a lot for the opponents of Reform to work with, although four more years of Rachel Reeves at the Treasury and these figures might look different.

TSE