There are two consistent themes to the polls for as long as I have been following them is that the polls overestimate how many people will actually vote in UK general election and that non-voters do not turn out to vote in the levels they say they will. The only two times in UK elections when that has hasn’t been the case has been the Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit referendum.

So my initial thought was to think Reform’s current lead is 2% over Labour rather than the 9% lead in the headline voting intention however Ed Hodgson has provided compelling reasons why this time these non-voters will actually turn out in 2029 but if I had to bet on it, if there were an election tomorrow Reform’s lead would be closer to 2% than the 9%.

TSE