A proper Scottish poll brings good news for Reform and independence
I suspect a lot of attention will be on how support from independence increases if Farage becomes Prime Minister but we saw similar polling prior to Brexit and if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister but hypothetical polling has shown in the past it is regularly utterly bobbins. I suspect the next Scottish independence referendum is likely to be at least a decade away.
As for the next Holyrood election this could be a bit of a mess, even though the SNP are on course to win more seats than in 2007 when they ran a minority administration but I think they are less coalitionable now they were in 2007.
As for Westminster voting intention and seats which shows messy first past the post is the Sunday Times notes
In terms of Westminster voting intentions, SNP support was at 31 per cent, just one point higher than its disastrous result in last July’s general election when it lost 39 seats, leaving it with only nine MPs.
However, Labour’s support has nosedived, standing at 20 per cent, 15 points lower than it recorded at the ballot box last year.
Reform is now in second place in Westminster voting intentions in Scotland with 21 per cent, compared with the Tories on 12 per cent and the Lib Dems on 8 per cent.
Yet according to Curtice, such a result in a UK general election would still see Reform fail to win a single seat in Scotland. His projections put the SNP on 30 Westminster seats, up 21. Labour would hold on to just 16 of its 37 MPs, while the Lib Dems and Tories would remain on six and five respectively.
TSE
