We tend to focus on individual polls which look interesting – but much more significant and easily missed – I think this is the first week when *every* poll released (from across 7 pollsters) has had the Reform ahead of the Conservatives.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-01-31T10:23:40.215Z

Even if Labour slip to third place or lower and behind the Tories I suspect Tory MPs will get worried if they are still consistently behind Reform because that bodes ill for the long term. If the Tories remain behind both Reform & Labour then I think we reach a tipping point once it is confirmed in real elections.

If Reform finish ahead of the Tories in both devolved elections next year then that’s curtains for Kemi Badenoch, you might want to take advantage of the 7/2 Ladbrokes are offering on a 2026 exit.

TSE