With Nigel Farage suggesting his chances of being prime minister within the next four years are as high as 25%, do Britons see it as a likely prospect?

Likely: 18%
Unlikely: 65%

Among Reform UK voters
Likely: 54%
Unlikely: 35%https://t.co/FSfXSrAaEE pic.twitter.com/3uezneKDIT

— YouGov (@YouGov) January 21, 2025

It is interesting to see what the voters and punters think about Nigel Farage’s expectation.

i am not feeling confident in calling this next election this far out, my other caveat is that say the current polls turn out be the actual election result (which history has shown to be unlikely) we have three parties on around 25% each plus or minus a few points.

Under FPTP that could lead to utter carnage, where uneven vote shares could see the party finishing third ending up on the most seats, it would require one of the parties having an even share of the vote across most constituencies which translates to a lot of (close) second places and few first places.

TSE

PS – I think the value is with Robert Jenrick, with the Kemi Badenoch proving to be underwhelming and the Tories slipping to third in the polls then the Tory party will go back to its roots and remember that it is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide which isn’t good news for Kemi Badenoch if she doesn’t improve. If Jenrick does replace before the next election then his odds will improve and makes for a great trading bet.