All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races.

And, boy, is this one interesting.

As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year.

There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio. There are a further fine in States where Trump is highly competitive in 2024: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

That’s right: if Trump sweeps the Red and Blue Walls, and wins the associated Senate races, the Republicans could well end up with a net gain of nine seats, taking them to a 58-42 lead. 

Now: of the Senate races, one is – I think – a 100% win likelihood for the Republicans: West Virginia. Joe Manchin is not standing again,the Republicans will win the Presidential race by a large margin, and the Senate candidate is the popular (and ex-Democrat) Jim Justice. Chalk one up to the Red team.

Republicans +1

There are then two States that Trump is likely to carry at a canter, with Democratic Senators that date back to the 2006 midterms. Both are popular, but those States are sufficiently Red, it almost certainly won’t be enough. One is Montana, where Jon Tester faces an extremely uphill battle to be releected. The other is Sherrod Brown in Ohio. I am sure that both the Senators will outperform Harris: but Tester is trailing by 7 to 8 points in a State that Trump will win by 20+ points, while Brown is at best flat in a State where Trump will be at least ten points clear. It is – of course – possible that both replicate Susan Collin’s remarkable performance in Maine. (And it is worth noting that Tester has one of the most positive approval ratings in the US – a solid +24.) But in a year when there is so much division, I suspect there won’t be enough ticket splitting to save either.

Republicans +3

Now let’s look at the states in the sunbelt where Trump stands a good chance of winning.

First is Arizona, and the Dems really lucked out here. This is an open seat with no popular incumbent, so with a decent Republican candidate they should have been clear favorites. With Kari Lake as candidate, not so much. She currently trails Ruben Gallegos by between 4 and 12 points. I have little doubt she will trail Trump in the State, and that must make the Democrats the likely winner here.

Then there’s Nevada. Jacky Rosen has an decent approval rating (+10), and she’ll probably outperform Harris, but I’d be surprised if it was by more than a point or two. If Trump wins Nevada, she could well be toast. So, let’s make her favorite, but a narrow one.

Republicans +3

Now to the Rust Belt

In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin you have Democrat incumbents, while in Michigan Debbie Stabenow is standing down. 

Candidly, none of these States look particularly safe for the Democrats. The only thing in their favor is that Senate candidates seem to be outpolling Harris by 1-3 percentage points across the board. And if that holds, you would probably expect two of them (who knows which) to hold on.

Republicans +4

And I think that would be my base assumption. A relatively comfortable recapture of the Senate for the Republicans.

With that said, there are three states where polling suggests incumbent Republican Senators *might* be in trouble.

First is Nebraska, where incumbent Deb Fischer faces a moderate independent in Dan Osborn. Polling suggests this will be very tight, with a number of decent pollsters showing Osborn leading. I’m sceptical. Like in Utah in 2022, I think independents in Deep Red states flatter to decieve.

Then there’s Florida. Rick Scott is neither popular with his fellow Republican Senators, nor with the Florida public. There are plenty of polls showing a close race, and it’s also possible he gets tarred with Florida’s abortion ban legislation. I’m sceptical. I think he’ll underperform Trump meaningfully, but with Trump winning Florida at a canter, I’d be very surprised if he fell.

Finally there’s Texas. Cruz is moderately unpopular (favorability just +5). But I just don’t buy massive amounts of ticket splitting. Republican hold.

So, there you go. I’m going with Republicans up 4, leaving the Senate at 53-47.

Could I be wrong? Sure. If it was Republicans up 6, that wouldn’t surprise me. It’s also possible that Tester and Brown both “pull a Collins”. And I guess it’s also theoretically possible that Scott loses in Florida, or Fischer in Nebraska. 

But I think the chances of anything other than a Republican controlled Senate are very small indeed. While I hate low odds bets, laying the Democrats on Betfair at 4.8 looks like an absolute steal – especially as Dan Osborn has stated he will not caucus with the Democrats should he win the Nebraska Senate race, which makes the Dems chances of being in control extremely small.

Robert