The Tories need to make a net gain of 205 seats at the next election to win a majority of 2.

The chart above shows the challenge the new Tory leader faces. Even if they make the sort of net gains Tony Blair won in 1997 it would still likely place the Tories as the second largest party (it would put the Tories on fewer seats than Labour won under Neil Kinnock in 1992.)

If Starmer can win a majority of 172 on a share of 33.7% then it is possible for Badenoch or Jenrick to make substantial net gains. I have wondered if we are headed back to the 1970s when we had successive de facto one term governments as opposed to the last forty-five years of strong and stable governments where the Tories governed for eighteen years, then thirteen years of Labour government, then fourteen years of Tory Prime Ministers.

TSE

PS - But back to that chart, is it any coincidence that the top three performing leaders of the opposition (Blair, Starmer, and Attlee) were all lawyers? Shakespeare was wrong, the country loves a lawyer, and as a lawyer Robert Jenrick should keep on reminding party members and the country that he is a lawyer unlike Kemi Badenoch, it could help him win first with Tory members then the country.