Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications
As a lifelong Conservative the thought of Robert Jenrick leading my party fills me with the same level of dread I experience when my other half asks to use my phone or laptop, not only because of his descent to the headbangers on the unelectable Braverman right of the party but down to his dealings with RIchard Desmond, his donors, and of course his desire to paint over pictures that might comfort frightened children.
I had a very small hope that he is currently campaigning in poetry but as leader he will lead in (centrist) prose as previously he was a centrist but that hope might be forlorn because.
The Observer reports that
Robert Jenrick will be toppled by the Tory party’s right wing should he attempt to pivot to the centre ground if installed as leader, senior Conservatives have warned.
Jenrick, who remains the frontrunner for the job after the party’s conference in Birmingham, has won support from the right with a series of uncompromising stances. He has said he would welcome Nigel Farage into the party, leave the European convention on human rights and vote for Donald Trump.
Having started life as an MP as a moderate, some believe he has only temporarily adopted a more rightwing stance as part of his efforts to win the leadership. Some allies have suggested he will move back to the centre once in office.
However, senior party figures are already warning Jenrick that if he becomes leader, his fate will be in the hands of rightwing MPs willing to attack those who have attempted to move away from their agenda.
They warned that he had entrusted his fate to the “Braverman right” – a reference to the former home secretary, Suella Braverman. Jenrick was made immigration minister under Braverman in the expectation that he would be a moderating force. However, he is said to have been radicalised by his time in the Home Office on the need for tougher policies.
One shadow minister compared Jenrick to Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader delivered into power by the right, but ultimately unable to widen his appeal to voters. Duncan Smith was removed as leader after just over two years.
“What will happen to him is that he will suffer the fate of IDS,” they said. “He will try to pivot to the centre, but what he’ll find is that the Braverman right won’t let him. They would pull their support and threaten to submit their latest vote of no confidence for a leadership contest. They have got him by the balls. It now only takes 19 letters to prompt a confidence vote in the leader.”
Allies of Jenrick strongly disputed the idea, pointing out that the likes of Victoria Atkins, Ed Argar and John Lamont – Tory figures associated with the liberal, One Nation wing of the party – also backed his leadership bid.
If Jenrick wins I do not expect him to lead the Tory party at the general election, simply because if he tacks to centre ground the Braverman right will try and oust him, and if he doesn’t, then the One Nation wing may do so. The bar for triggering a vote of confidence is a mere 19 Tory MPs.
I expect the first two rounds of local elections in 2025 and 2026 could be very bad for the Tories. The ones in 2025 were last held in 2021 at thr time of peak Boris Johnson and in 2026 are in areas such as Scotland, Wales, and London which could be rather unfriendly for the Tories where they could be pincered by Reform and the Lib Dems even if Labour see a fall in their vote.
As soon as the leadership election result is announced I would hope we get exit dates for Jenrick because I would want to bet on him going before the election, his politicals balls could be crushed and castrated by 19 people.
TSE