Some movement this week, although still not much – and not very consistent.

538 have moved North Carolina from a slight Trump edge to a slight Harris edge, which widens her margin of victory in the Electoral College.
Real Clear Politics, however have moved Pennsylvania from Harris to Trump, which has the effect of shifting their prediction to a Trump win 281-257. How are they managing to swim against the tide on PA? By ignoring the Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll which puts Harris ahead by 5 or 6 points, and the Activote poll which puts her up by 3. And this is why we don’t trust RCP, boys and girls…

In the Senate, 538 have finally started putting averages on their Senate numbers, which shifts three seats from Unclear: 2 to the Reps (MT and TX) and 1 to the Dems (OH).

James Doyle