Constituency 2/4

SNP 33%
Lab 30%
Con 12%
Reform 9%
LD 5%
Green; and others picking up 2%

— TSE (@TSEofPB) August 24, 2024

4/4

The new poll reveals that Starmer is the least unpopular leader in Scotland with an overall rating of -5. Sarwar scored -8 and Swinney -11. Douglas Ross, the outgoing Scottish Conservative leader, scored -50.

— TSE (@TSEofPB) August 24, 2024

After the shellacking the SNP received last month and coupled with the fact the SNP will have been in power for nineteen years in May 2026 it feels inevitable that the SNP would lose the next Holyrood election but a poll showing them to be the largest party in Holyrood in 2026 seems a bit counter-intuitive.

I respect Norstat as a pollster, going back to their Panelbase days, but any poll that shows Reform winning eight seats at Holyrood screams outlier to me.

If this poll turns out to be prescient then May 2026 will be a fun as nobody will be able to cobble together a majority other than a three/four party Unionist alliance which might not be very stable.

So far The Sunday Times haven’t released any Scottish independence polling but I am hopeful we will see a plethora of Scottish independence polling next month as we celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Indyref when Scotland rejected division and endorsed the Union.

TSE