NEW: Penultimate MRP Update.

Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland.

Probabilistic seat count:

LAB 470
CON 85
LD 56
SNP 12
RFM 4
PC 3
GRN 2

23,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Fwk 15th – 27th Junehttps://t.co/4vB1oOH2Uy

— Survation. (@Survation) June 28, 2024

Survation’s final MRP projection will be published on Tuesday, followed by our final call on Wednesday.

— Survation. (@Survation) June 28, 2024

The latest MRP confirms the patterns we’ve seen with others and not dissimilar to standard VI polls when put through Electoral Calculus, where we are not fazed when polls show the Tories sub 100 and/or Sir Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.

Survation note

One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal Democrats in 10. Very small swings between now and the 4th July could have a dramatic influence on each party’s seat count.

My view is when you take all the polling and supplementaries right now it is touch and go if the Tories get more than 100 MPs.

TSE