There are eight seats which Labour won in 2019 adjusted for the new boundaries, but where you can get real odds (1/10 or longer) on them winning this time. The first four were covered earlier. The final four are below.

All majorities below are the notional 2019 result on the new boundaries

Islington North. Majority: 26,188. Odds: 13/8 (Ladbrokes)

The Independent who needs no introduction, Jeremy Corbyn is taking on his own party having been pretty openly forced out by Keir Starmer. The most famous former MP to run as an independent, by far, for decades, Corbyn claims to have an army of 200 activists campaigning for him and says he is ‘J‘ in the seat.

Given the unreliability of canvass returns I don’t see how he can really know this, but his profile certainly does make him a viable independent. However, given how dominant Labour have been in the seat until now, he cannot come through the middle of a split vote. Corbyn will need to win the bulk of his former voters and prove their loyalty is to him over the party brand he held for over 40 years.

Verdict: While clearly viable, I’d make Corbyn an underdog not a favourite. The history, especially recently, of MPs fighting their old party is very bleak. While he is uniquely prominent, he has a mountain to climb. I like Labour at 13/8, though as with Bristol Central the seat dynamics are very unclear and a big win or big loss wouldn’t shock me. Bet with care.

Leicester East: Majority: 5,999. Odds: 1/7 (Bet365)

On July 4^th voters in Leicester East will find a ballot paper with four independent candidates, a ‘One Leicester’ candidate, and two former MPs. Both Keith Vaz (of washine machine sales fame) and Claudia Webbe (of harassment conviction fame) are running for their old seats.

It is Webbe who seems to be considered the risk factor to Labour, as she has been endorsed by George Galloway’s Workers Party of Great Britain (though she is not a WPGB candidate, for some reason). Interestingly, the Tories are 2^nd favourites to win, with the bookies seeming to be considering a scenario where Webbe, and perhaps Vaz, peel off enough votes from Labour to let the Tories in.

To add to the chaos, I should mention that one of the other independents is a Tory councillor who could peel votes off from them, though I can’t imagine he’s their biggest headache compared to…*gestures vaguely at everything*.

Verdict: I would be really surprised if the Tory vote held up enough to win even if Labour did lose more votes than normal to former MPs (and that’s typically a few thousand at most). On the other hand, The Spectator’s local producer thinks Vaz might storm home. Make of that what you will.

Rochdale. Majority: 8,109. Odds: 8/15 (WillHill)

Another seat which isn’t actually Labour-held, George Galloway will be fighting tooth and nail to hold on to his convincing by-election victory from February in which Labour actually came 4^th.

For anyone who has forgotten, the campaign saw the Labour and green candidates resign mid-campaign after comments they’d made about Gaza and/or Muslims came to light. Dave Tully, owner of a local garage who campaigned principally on local issues alone, came 2^nd with more votes than Labour and the Tories combined.

Labour will hope that a more national campaign will prevent Galloway’s unique form of charisma from cutting through, and that the particular circumstances of the by-election ‘lanced the boil’ of Gaza as an issue for the party.

Verdict: The lack of media coverage of the seat (compared to say, Islington North) is a good sign, as is Galloway’s poor record in general elections since he left Labour in 2005 (the only time he’s won a seat outside of a by-election). I wouldn’t wade in too deep but I like Labour’s odds.

Sheffield Hallam. Majority: 1,108. Odds: 2/9 (Bet365)

Nick Clegg’s old stomping ground, Sheffield Hallam is the only real Lab/LD marginal in the country. It is also, by far, the most affluent Labour constituency in the country (though check back in on July 5^th for how true that remains…).

Sheffield Hallam has remained stubbornly close for years, with a majority one way or another of less than 5% for three straight elections. In 2019 a strong Tory performance, winning 26% of the vote, also made Labour’s Olivia Blake the MP elected with the lowest share of the vote anywhere in Great Britain (she won 34.6%).

Labour will hope that if they could hold off the Lib Dems in the nightmare of 2019 they can win a big majority this time. The Lib Dems will hope all those Tory voters who are presumably about to defect in large numbers will come to them rather than Labour or Reform.

Verdict: While I suspect Labour will be just fine, I actually don’t like these odds. As mentioned, this is literally the only place in the country a sizeable bloc of voters will have to choose between Labour and the Lib Dems in this way and we don’t really know how that will play out. Some MRPs have it close, too (though others have a blowout Labour win).

Pip Moss

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets on Labour to win Canterbury (1/8), Islington North (5/4), Leicester East (1/7), Rochdale (8/15), and Sheffield Hallam (8/11). All odds quoted correct as of 11pm Sunday 16 June. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts and BlueSky at @Quincel.Bsky.Social