In 1997 Labour won a landslide with 146 gains and no losses. It stands to reason really: Their vote share rose by 8.8% nationally and with the bulk of voters deciding on national issues or loyalties that rising tide lifted all boats.

Labour are currently polling roughly 10% above the 32.1% vote share Corbyn achieved in 2019, and yet the betting markets have them as outsides in two seats they hold. A further six seats have meaningful odds (1/10 or more) on the party. Easy money? Let’s do a quickfire review.

All majorities below are the notional 2019 result on the new boundaries

Bristol Central. Majority: 16,696. Odds: 2/1 (Bet365)

The idea of Labour winning a majority of maybe 200 but losing a majority of this size may appear absurd, but the Greens #1 target seat is certainly in play. The party has been focused on the seat for years and swept every ward in the latest local elections. Their candidate is Carla Denyer, longstanding local councillor and party co-leader.

Demographically the seat is fertile territory for them, but also for Labour (hence the stonking majority to begin with). As a result the Greens are campaigning on a clear message of ‘Voting for us won’t stop Labour winning nationally, but will impact how they govern’. So that’s one thing they and Grant Shapps have in common.

Verdict: The truth is it’s deeply hard to judge if they will sweep the seat, fall well short, or run it close either way. My gut is the rising tide for Labour is too strong and 2/1 is good value, but the Greens nationally are resisting the polling squeeze quite well so that’s a lightly-held opinion.

Canterbury. Majority: 2.160. Odds: 1/8 (Bet365/WillHill)

One of the most shocking Labour gains in 2017, Canterbury is notable for its incumbent’s gender critical views. In short, Rosie Duffield MP is not remotely on board with the majority view of Labour activists and MPs when it comes to the law and trans people. In fact, tensions are high enough that she withdrew from a planned hustings this week citing death threats from ‘a few fixated people‘.

I don’t really see how this puts the seat at risk though. Let’s say the issue blows up locally and a load of Labour voters don’t want to support her. Who do they switch to? Her Conservative opponent, whose party has repeatedly attacked Keir Starmer for ‘Not knowing what a woman is’? Hardly an obvious sell to disgruntled social liberals.

And is there any reason to believe a meaningful number of voters consider this a key issue, more important to their ballot than the cost of living or immigration or the NHS?

Verdict: Even 1/8 seems pretty free money.

Dewsbury and Batley. Majority: 14,009. Odds: 1/8 (Bet365/WillHill)

A new seat formed, in part, from Batley and Spen, the area has seen a lot of political turmoil in the last decade. In 2016, Jo Cox MP was assassinated by a far-right extremist shortly before the Brexit referendum. 5 years later her younger sister narrowly held her seat in a by-election where George Galloway won 22% of the vote.

This new seat should be rock solid for Labour, but the doubt stems from Iqbal Mohamed who is running as an Independent. Mohamed is part of the North Kirklees Community Action Group, which exists to run political campaigns based on the ongoing War in Gaza and their issues with the UK’s support for Israel.

Verdict: With respect to Mohamed, there is no reason to believe there are enough voters willing to vote on Gaza to win this seat, particularly at a national election and particularly when you aren’t George Galloway. 1/8 is probably value.

Hartlepool. Majority: 3,595. Odds: 1/7 (Bet365/WillHill)

It’s no secret why this isn’t nailed on for Labour: The seat isn’t actually a Labour defence. The nadir of Starmer’s leadership (well, so far) came in 2021 when the Tories were riding high under Johnson and they romped home to sweep the seat with a 23% majority.

Of course, a lot has changed in 3 years. The Tories are not going to win 52% in the seat according to any MRP, in fact a constituency poll (which is never too reliable, but still) has them on a mere 10%! Reform UK, who almost came 2^nd in 2019, are not going to win 1.2% of the vote as they did in the by-election (nor are they running the same candidate, a Mr John Prescott (not that one)).

Verdict: Labour should turn 2021 into a blip, and pick up where they left off in 2019. With the right-wing vote split, and the left-wing vote much higher, this should be safe. 1/7 isn’t entirely unreasonable given how swingy the seat has been, but it’s probably a bit long.

Pip Moss

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Part Two of this article will follow. He has bets on Labour to win Canterbury (1/8). All odds quoted correct as of 11pm Sunday 16 June. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts and BlueSky at @Quincel.Bsky.Social