Incoming extinction level event for the Tories

31/5/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment

?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL?

We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election.

Seats tally

CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2

This accounts for tactical voting.
— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 31, 2024

3/n

In Sunak's seat we project he will hold on, but by a whisker with a massively reduced majority of 3pct.

CON: 44%
LAB: 41%
LD: 3%
Reform: 8%
Green: 4% pic.twitter.com/QGhbpoVpV5
— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 31, 2024

5/n

We applied tactical voting on a seat by seat basis based on research we conducted and which parties came in the top 2 in the seat back in 2019.

We found that tactical voting hurts Labour more than the Tories

Here are our tactical transition matrices for GB. pic.twitter.com/mDSvMk4UYp
— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 31, 2024

6/n

We also asked voters on their attitudes to feeling better off and if they feel like they are getting value for money from the government.

Here are some tables summarising their responses. pic.twitter.com/fe76JfVPdu
— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 31, 2024

7/n

Our full write up can be found at https://t.co/prwWjnBUbK

Please share this widely and comment your thoughts below.

I will post link to our press release later on in this thread.

Bookmark this!
— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 31, 2024

My word, if this MRP is accurate we should talking about the Lib Dems as the official opposition after the election.

I expect a few other MRPs over the next few weeks, if they are anything like this then we will be entering a death loop for the Tories.

It may also bugger up a few Tory leadership plans.

TSE

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Incoming extinction level event for the Tories

31/5/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment