The spreads are open
It is with great delight I can annonce Sporting Index have opened the seat spreads for the general election.
I think Labour are a sell at the moment based on 1997 simply because we might see a rogue/outlier poll or two. In 1997 nine days before election day the gold standard ICM had the Labour lead down to 5%. It might be wiser to buy the Tories, I haven’t fully decided yet. It is not unknown for pollsters to tweak their methodology once an election date is announced.
Tomorrow I will be publishing a thread that shows the political betting markets can be very reactive and wrong. Spread betting isn’t for everyone, you could lose many multiples of your stake. When my first wife discovered my proclivity for spread betting she genuinely started wondering about whether she could remain married to somebody so reckless when she worked out the potential losses.
Mike Smithson told me that back in 2007 when there was speculation about Gordon Brown calling a snap a friend of his bought Labour seats at circa seats at £100 per seat, in his defence a Labour MP was publishing articles headlined ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’. One of Mike’s greatest ever tips was selling the Tories at circa 398 seats in April 2017 when the polls were giving the Tories 25% leads.
The SNP look like a sell at the moment, it is well known that they are struggle to get a pot to pee in and with Operation Branchform still an ongoing investigation that financial situation could get worse.
John Swinney seems oblivious to the mess Boris Johnson got himself with Owen Paterson, the possibility about tactical Unionist voting is another issue the SNP will struggle with.
TSE