“Our priority is to stop the boats, which is why we have taken robust action to crack down on vile people smuggling gangs, deter migrants from making dangerous crossings and, alongside our French counterparts, intercept vessels.

“This relentless action reduced crossings by 36% last year, despite numbers soaring by 80% in the Mediterranean, and more than 26,000 attempts were prevented.” UK Home Office, 8th March 2024.

Barely a day goes by without news of some new Government initiative to Stop the Boats. It has become one of the Government’s most totemic issues. Rwanda, offshore processing, joint operations with the French. And all for, what, a few thousand people who make no difference to the overall immigration numbers and are mostly successful in their asylum claims. Why on earth is the government so worried. We don’t get similar headlines about people coming here illegally or as asylum seekers via other routes.

For nearly 20 years UK and other Member State citizens had the fundamental right to move and reside freely, and, subject to certain conditions, to live anywhere within the EU. And many took up this right, coming here to live and work. Following the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, when Freedom of Movement, or Free Movement was introduced, annual net migration to the UK, 77,000 in 1994, rose to 250,000 by 2004.

For some this was too many and famously, in 2010, David Cameron promised he would bring the number down to “tens of thousands” should the Conservatives be elected. Net migration was then over 200,000 per year and this was “too high”, he said. But as a Member State with Free Movement enshrined in law, the UK was unable to do anything much about immigration from the EU, so the numbers continued virtually unchanged. We had no control.

Fast forward to the EU referendum, where the clarion call of Vote Leave was for us to “Take Back Control”. In his poll following the vote, Lord Ashcroft found that a third of those who had voted leave did so on account of immigration. Or rather, they thought that “voting to leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders” (my italics). The concept of control was central to the campaign, and the public mood.

It was clear to me that Leave would win when Nick Herbert, who was leading the Conservative Remain effort, was asked by Kate Hoey what the UK could do to stop immigrants from the EU coming here now or in the future if we were still members. He had no answer; it was all over. Simply, we had no control while we were EU members, and EU immigrants would and could keep coming. And the British public didn’t like this, so we voted to take back control and Free Movement ended on 31st December 2020.

But the increase in net migration certainly didn’t end. If anything, it gained pace.

For the year ending June 2023 net migration was 670,000 (numbers subject to revision), contributing to a 1% increase in the overall population of the England and Wales, with the vast majority of those wanting to make their homes here coming from outside the EU, even allowing for the numbers coming from Ukraine and Hong Kong. They came to work (30%) to study (40%) and as dependents.

In short, when it comes to the huge numbers of people coming to this country, it has been situation: no change.

But how can this be when we have a Brexit-focused Conservative Government with a huge majority in power and fully a third of Leave voters had cited immigration as an important factor in their vote. Well, it appears that as a nation we like high immigration. That, surely, is the only rational explanation. Because if we didn’t like it, we, as a sovereign nation, would put an end to it. Just as we eventually Brexited.

So how do we square this evident love of immigration, with the Government’s mania to try to “Stop the Boats”. The answer is it’s nothing to do with immigration (although there is an element of performative pandering to Party’s extreme wing). The clue is in that Lord Ashcroft poll finding – “voting to leave [offers] the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders”.

It continues to be all about control. The UK doesn’t mind immigration, just look at the numbers. But it really, really doesn’t like to be out of control. And that is why The Boats are so important for the Government. When the public sees that there is no control over this well-publicised element of our lives, it is reminded of what else the Government is failing at. Such as the economy, or the health service, or education.

The Government, meanwhile, has seen what happens when the public believes a ruling party has no control in this area and calculates that if it can take back control of The Boats it will inspire the trust of the voters for it to take back control over other policy areas and, who knows, perhaps even parliament itself come the next General Election.

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