Assuming the election is due in May, we're less than 120 days out. Labour are doing more than what's needed to win big. But there are nonetheless some weak spots. https://t.co/SUevXTPAMT pic.twitter.com/weQQtwP8eF

— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) January 4, 2024

But what sits most important with me is that the government are polling worse on the economy today than they were in January 1997. And on this metric Starmer's Labour aren't that far off Blair's. https://t.co/SUevXTPAMT pic.twitter.com/HBPcKXGB1X

— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) January 4, 2024

I love studying history and past polls is a particular area that brings unbridled joy is when we are looking for evidence of swingback.

Based on precedent Labour’s lead at the general election could be as low as 4% which make those people betting on no overall majority rather happy.

My two key takeaways is that Starmer isn’t doing as well as Cameron & Blair, the only two people in the last forty four years to make the transition from Leader of the Opposition to Prime Minister, had much better ratings than Starmer and Starmer has to make even more gains than David Cameron did to win a majority. Even if Starmer makes as many gains as Blair he only wins a majority of 48 which is a reflection on the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed him.

The only thing that might save Starmer is the relative toxicity of the Tories and the economy question. The next election could be the resistible force meets the moveable object.

TSE