Boxing day football is one of our many British Christmas traditions. The season tends to end much as at this halfway point, though rarely precisely, so quite the benchmark.

While nearly all politicians pay lip service to supporting a football team, Keir Starmer has a more genuine love of football than most in politics. Like Jeremy Corbyn and Osama Bin Laden he is an Arsenal fan, and a season ticket holder for many years. He also played himself in a regular Sunday team, usually as a left midfielder.

Football is such a popular game because it can be understood at many levels. It is a simple game played in the street by urchins or a multi-billion pound business and amongst the biggest of British cultural exports. It is a game that requires organisation and team play, but also allows for spectacular Individual brilliance. It is the beautiful game, but often very ugly. Win or lose, spectators have something to talk about, in particular how a team sets up to defend or attack organisationally, and who should play in what position, and who should be benched.

Starmer seems most influenced by the great success of Arsenal under George Graham, based on a solid defence and leading to the song “To the Arsenal one nil”.

“Parking the Bus” is a phrase introduced into English football by Jose Mourinho following a Chelsea-Spurs match that ended nil-nil, in a post-match interview. He suggested that Spurs had blocked the goal with their team bus. Mourinho was later an exponent of the same tactic. For the benefit of non-aficionados this link may help explain:

Defensive tactics are as old as football itself, but to execute “Parking the Bus” as a strategy requires an iron discipline and a well drilled team that keeps its shape, closes off space and frustrates the opposition. There can be no loss of concentration, and any opportunities for counter attack short-lived before the team resumes shape. It is about controlling the territory to control the game.

Starmer is running his campaign for a Labour majority very much in this style. He has all his key players sticking to the plan, with little scope given for individual expressive play, even from the fiery Angela Rayner as striker. To a casual spectator this is dull to watch, indeed it is deliberate as the objective is to run down the clock without conceding a goal. Starmer knows that he is in the lead, so defending is better than scoring.

How does an attacking team break down such a defence? One option is individual brilliance, another is at set-pieces, another is to sucker the defending team out of position then a swift attack before the defence can reorganise, another is to pounce on a defensive error and capitalise etc etc 

Can the Tories break such a defence within the next 12 months? They haven’t shown any sign of doing so. Indeed in their desperation they risk conceding further goals. Their previous star striker got the red card, and left on a free transfer. The set pieces of the campaign are the debates, but Sunak has been mediocre at best with these, losing to Liz Truss.

Sunak is a chess player so has some understanding of strategy, but politics is like football and has unpredictable elements too that aren’t there even in 4d chess. Trusting to some massive error on Labour’s part pushes his luck rather far.

Starmer’s tactics included parking the Brexit bus, the most contentious policy of the last decade, as well as benching or sacking his most undisciplined and flamboyant players even when fan favourites. 

Starmer knows the risk of such an anti-football strategy – the crowd may get frustrated and want to see attacking flair – and even a single error could be catastrophic for the plan. Labour also need  an attacking plan as plan B if this happens, but it seems to me that Sunak is going to get frustrated first and make schoolboy errors. 

Starmer’s Arsenal are in great position this Boxing Day, vying for their first league win since the glory days. Sunak’s Southampton are struggling a division below.

Foxy