No, you haven’t logged on to the wrong forum (well, maybe – only you know for sure).

Sometime next year I expect the broadcasters will be brushing the dust off their swingometers, giving them a fresh lick of paint, and oiling the needle pivot in readiness for the long-awaited General Election. 

I have a tip for broadcasters: “You’re gonna need a bigger dial”.

The current Labour lead averages about 18-19%.  At the last election the Tories won by 11.7%.  Unless I need some of that extra maths tuition Sunak was pushing, if the election matched the current Labour lead that would be a swing of over 15%.

Ok, I know the polls will probably close as we approach the election – they did in 1997 after all, which nevertheless resulted in a 10% swing.  But if swings of 10%+ are a possibility, that swingometer from the 1964 election (swing: 3.2% to Lab) would certainly not cut it.

Even for Labour to emerge with a bare majority at the next General Election (a scenario which is the 75% favourite outcome among punters) it would require a Labour lead of over 5% on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus, thus a swing of more than 8.5%.

So how rare is a big swing of this proportion? 

Very.

From the table below, in the unlikely(?) event today’s polls are repeated at the GE, we would see the largest swing ever recorded (I’m starting history from the Great Reform Act for obvious reasons). 

There have only been four double-digit swings: in 1835, 1931, 1945, and 1997 (just).

That 8.5% swing required for a bare Labour majority has only happened in those same four elections.  That’s four times out 46 elections – discounting 1918 (unfathomable) and 1832 (unknowable). 

Does this mean we should take the current polls with a pinch of salt and expect a reversion to norm?  Or do we live in strange times? 

Keys, sorry, cards on the table, I think big swingers may be making a comeback.

Election swings since 1832

*If anyone can work out the swing in 1918, feel free.

Benpointer