Two years and counting

7/12/2023 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The most notable thing about this chart is how straight the Labour and Conservative lines are since May 2021. There's a spasm when Partygate broke and another when Liz Truss imploded, but those were short term deviations from a much longer term trend. https://t.co/PBgBeS88Uh
— Alastair Meeks (@AlastairMeeks) December 6, 2023

Looking at that chart it is understable why people think the Tories are doomed. Unlike the period between March 2012 and May 2014 when the Tories led by David Cameron didn’t lead in the polls there were enough clues in the supplementaries that the country prefered David Cameron over Ed Miliband, and George Osborne over Ed Balls but right now that situation doesn’t exist for Sunak where Starmer leads on pretty much every metric.

Starmer vs Sunak (3 December):

Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

Understands the problems afflicting the UK (44% | 27%)
Cares about people like me (40% | 25%)
Is a strong leader (38% | 29%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 34%) pic.twitter.com/1HIh62Virh
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) December 4, 2023

My expectation is that we will not see a Tory lead this side of the election.

TSE

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Two years and counting

7/12/2023 TSE Comments 0 Comment