Smarkets have this market up on the next general election on out of the SNP and the Lib Dems, who will win the most seats. I can understand why the Lib Dems are the favourites in this market but I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP won this market.

Whilst this has been an annus horribilis for the SNP, particularly for the past and present leadership, with the Westminster voting intention polls (and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election) that what hasn’t changed much is the support for Scottish independence.

Excluding don’t knows support is generally in the high forties and there have been polls which put Yes ahead, my view is that support has to go somewhere at a general election which might save the SNP but I would need better odds than 2.8 to back such an outcome.

TSE