Sadiq Khan holds a 25pt lead over Tory rival Susan Hall for mayor

Sadiq Khan (Labour): 50%
Susan Hall (Conservative): 25%
Zoe Garbett (Green): 11%
Rob Blackie (Lib Dem): 7%
Howard Cox (Reform UK): 4%
Some other candidate: 3%https://t.co/BW1lnjmKN6 pic.twitter.com/eMeGTMJgyV

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 6, 2023

I’ve said for a while Susan Hall was congenitally a terrible candidate for London and this poll backs up that feeling. Those hoping ULEZ would damage Khan are going to be disappointed by this poll.

This poll has a London Westminster voting intention which sees a Labour lead of 35%, at the 2019 general election Labour led the Tories by 16.1% in the capital which means the Tories are on course for a world of hurt in London at the general election. It would appear the Tory victory in the Uxbridge & South Ruislip by election really was a chimera.

The only way I can see Khan losing the election is if Jeremy Corbyn stands and splits the centre left vote but I don’t think Corbyn will stand as he doesn’t want to experience the wrath of Khan and other centre left voters for helping Susan Hall become London Mayor. (Actually I think it isn’t out of the realms of possibility that if Corbyn did stand Susan Hall finishes third behind Khan and Corbyn.)

You can get 1.25 on Khan to win next May (and lay Hall at 7), I think they both represent some value, given the payout timeframe.

TSE