A LAB majority stays at a near 65% betting chance
Starmer’s party, which hasn’t been getting much attention recently, is retaining its position in the next general election betting and is rated as a 65% chance of achieving an overall majority.
It is hard to see this moving much except if LAB’s poll leading begins to ebb away.
My calculation is that the critical figure we should look for is whether or not the Labour Party has an overall lead over the Tories of 7% or more. That should ensure a majority.
It could get interesting if the gap drops below 10% which would almost certainly undermine its position in the betting.