The latest betting exchange odds on Trump being the WH2024 GOP nominee rate Trump as about a 70% chance. To me this sounds to be on the high side given the mounting criminal indictments he is facing and a new factor highlighted in the YouTube video linked to above.

This is because someone who did what he did on January 6th 2021 cannot in good faith take the oath of office if he did get re-elected.

The MSNBC video goes into this in some detail and is well worth watching.

Like all betting, this is not about making predictions but highlighting where the current odds appear value. Trump might become the nominee once again but in my view he’s got less than 70% chance of doing so.

Mike Smithson