On June 9th the novelist, TV presenter, and occasional MP Nadine Dorries, announced that she was resigning as an MP “with immediate effect”. This prompted the bookies and betting exchanges to set up markets on a by-elecion in Mid Bedfordshire..
Not long afterwards the Labour party published a specially commissioned constituency Opinium poll for the seat which had Starmer’s party winning with the LDs in 4th place.
I have noted many times before that constituency polls are very hard to carry out and don’t have a good record. It is not often, though, that a poll from a top-notch pollster has almost zero impact on the betting markets which is what has happened here.
The incumbent, Nadine Dorries, has a book about Johnson coming out in conference season and it is being suggested that she will use the launch to announce her resignation. Maybe she will but although this seat is very familiar to me I am not having a bet.
If no by-election is held by the end of the year then most bookies will be refunding stakes.