Public opinion towards the [X] brand:

LAB: 37% positive / 35% negative
GRN: 28% / 31%
LDEM: 23% / 36%
CON: 20% / 52%
REF: 13% / 38%

via @IpsosUKhttps://t.co/T8J3lBRQkS pic.twitter.com/tXIQr6BAbV

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 25, 2023

Speaking to a Tory activist friend earlier on this week about how things are going on the campaigning front and they said that if the locals were solely about Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer then it wouldn’t be such a bad night for the Tories on Thursday which reflects the leader ratings which are better for the Tories than the headline voting intention figures, although last night’s Opinium might be a harbinger of that unravelling.

However the rather large elephant on the ballot paper is the Tory brand which fits in neatly with the polling in the tweet above. The key finding for me isn’t the low Tory favourable figure but the high unfavourable figure for the Tories. What this risks is 1997 levels of tactical voting against the Tories which means the Tories do worse than UNS would suggest.

A booming economy, replete with a feel good factor, could help the Tories improve their favourability ratings, as well as actually delivering on Sunak’s promises but Sunak is running out of time to improve the Tory brand.

TSE