Has Sturgeon filleted Scottish Independence?
One of the inevitable fallouts out from Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation is that the SNP special conference next month might get delayed, The Guardian are reporting that
Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation could prompt a major rethink around her plans to fight the next UK general election as a de facto referendum on independence, the Scottish National party’s leader in Westminster has suggested.
After the shock announcement of the first minister’s departure on Wednesday, Stephen Flynn said the special conference due to be held next month on Sturgeon’s plan should be pushed back to give the new leader time to set out their intentions.
“I think it’s sensible that we do hit the pause button on that conference and allow the new leader the opportunity to set out their vision,” he told Sky News.
That proposal was supported by Mike Russell, the party’s president, who told BBC Scotland on Thursday: “There is a question to be asked as to whether that should be postponed whilst the leader comes into place.”
Russell, one of the SNP’s most senior figures, said Sturgeon had touched on that prospect in her speech on Wednesday. Although he supported Sturgeon’s stance on how to fight the next general election, he said: “I think it’s a matter that needs to be discussed.”
The conference was organised to approve Sturgeon’s highly controversial proposal but it is one Flynn and others inside the SNP have widely criticised, and is deeply unpopular with voters. There is speculation at Holyrood it may now be repurposed as a leadership hustings event for SNP members in the Edinburgh area.
If the new SNP leader undoes Sturgeon strategy then I suspect some in the SNP and wider independence movement will be furious with any delay for a de facto plebiscite considering the SNP already have multiple mandates to ask for a second plebiscite that could lead to problems for the independence movement.
The game changer would be if Alba (or the Greens) decided to stand candidates at the next Westminster general election because of the SNP delays. I don’t think they’d win many if any seats, but they could damage the Scottish independence movement if they go full Judean People’s Party and hand seats to the Unionists.
You can understand recent betting movements on the next Indyref.
TSE