? The 1922 Committee will consider a rule change to allow a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak if the party suffers a major blow in the local elections, The Telegraph understands https://t.co/SBj3xGPant

— Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) February 5, 2023

The Tory Party are determined to make AD 193 look like a year of strong and stable leadership.

The Telegraph article seems to suggest Sunak could be ousted if the local elections are dire for the Tories and would lead to a rule change in when a vote of confidence can be triggered.

I actually think the maximum risk for Sunak will be if the Privileges Committee inquiry into Boris Johnson and partygate recommends suspending Boris Johnson from the Commons for a period that can trigger the recall process.

If Sunak whips the party to vote for suspension then I can see a vote of confidence being triggered in Sunak with Boris Johnson supporters (and there’s at least 100 Tory MPs in that list) wanting revenge for Sunak suspending Boris Johnson.

I’m not laying 2023 as Sunak’s exit date.

TSE