Smarkets have a market up on who will be the next cabinet minister out and as you would expect Zahawi is the very strong favourite. He’s currently rated as a 90% chance.

The flip side of this is that you can get about 4/1 on Zahami surviving and another cabinet minister being the next exit.

What we know about Sunak is that he is very weak when it comes to sacking members of his team and the fact that he hasn’t done it already suggests that in this case it’s not going to happen. Even if the report that’s been prepared goes against the former chancellor I can still see till hanging in there.

One thing that is for sure that is that the former Chancellor and co-founder of YouGov is not going to go of his own accord. If he is to cease to be in the cabinet then Sunak has to take action and I just cannot see him doing that given what we know of how he has dealt with other ministers in trouble.

The biggest risk to Nadhim I would suggest is if Sunak gets squeezed out and a new prime minister comes in. He/she is not going to have Nadhin around for very long.

Mike Smithson