Could there be an election this year?
As can be seen from the general election timing betting market punters are pretty much confident that there will be no contest this year.
While I think that this is probably right I would not put an 89% chance on it as betting markets seem to suggest.
Should there be something of a Tory recovery in the polls you can see Sunak being put under pressure to make the most of a situation and actually call an early election.
As I keep on saying I think the polls are giving a distorted picture of the current situation because of the practice of grossing up and ignoring those who say they have not made their mind up. At least one pollster has a calculation that includes putting a slab of Tory don’t knows into the Tory column.