?BREAKING – Streford & Urmston by-election result:

LAB: 12,828
CON: 2,922
GRN: 789
LDEM: 659
REFUK: 650
REJOIN EU: 237
IND: 183
FREEDOM ALLIANCE: 76

Labour HOLD.

Turnout 25.8%.

— ALDC (@ALDC) December 16, 2022

Stretford and Urmston parliamentary by-election, result:

LAB: 69.6% (+9.3)
CON: 15.9% (-11.7)
GRN: 4.3% (+1.6)
LDEM: 3.6% (-2.4)
REF: 3.5% (+3.5)
REU: 1.3% (+1.3)
IND: 1.0% (+1.0)
FA: 0.4% (+0.4)
SDP: 0.4% (+0.4)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 16, 2022

It is hard to read anything into this that we didn’t know beforehand. The Tories are struggling and Labour is benefitting but the turnout was far less than we see in normal council elections.

The 10.4% CON to LAB swing was broadly in line with recent national polls but markedly smaller than in Chester two weeks ago.

None of the parties put any real effort into this because the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The 25.8% turnout compares with the 41.2% in Chester..

I doubt if either Rishi or Keir is going to lose any sleep over this.

Mike Smithson