Why I think that LAB will struggle to get a majority
The above dataset is from the latest YouGov poll which as you can see gives LAB a 24% lead over the Tories which is one of the highest of recent surveys. An interesting set of figures is the second grouping which does not exclude those not having a party choice. This represents just under a third of the total CON vote from the last election and my guess is that a significant part of this will actually go back on the day
We see that just 11% have switched to LAB, 3% to the Lib Dems and 11% to Reform UK. A total of 32% are in this category which I think will partially back the Tories when we actually have a general election. Some pollsters do allocate part of this segment to the party.
The extraordinary thing is that the Tory collapse happened in such a short period of time. Back in September the LAB lead was nothing like on the scale that we see today and indeed one pollster had it down to just 4%.
The big driver of the Tory collapse was the Kwartang budget at the end of September – a measure that in just over a month led to the Truss exit and the arrival of Sunak.
The new PM is still finding his feet and I expect a closing of the gap to some extent before we actually vote.