LAB now odds-on in the betting to win a majority
But Scotland remains a massive problem for LAB
The chart shows how things have moved in the past 12-months in the next general election betting market. As can be seen LAB has moved up for a 16% chance to a 51% chance now while the Tories have moved from 35% to 11%.
I for one remain less than convinced about LAB for one reason and that is Scotland. This week’s Ipsos Scotland-only poll had SNP 51%, LAB 25%, CON 13% and LD 6%. This was the first Ipsos Scotland poll that had the SNP on more than 50% and clearly, all the other parties including LAB are going to really struggle.
The pattern over the past three decades had been for LAB to be the dominant party and at GE1992 had the party with 49 MPs north of the border.
That looks set to be down to zero and it is hard to see how Starmer’s party can get over the 225 seats majority threshold without any Scottish MPs.