Retaining Senate control would be a huge boost for Biden
And a blow for Trump
We are just over a month away from the November 8th US mid-term elections when generally, as the table above indicates, the party of the incumbent president does not do well.
In all but 2 set of midterms since the mid 1970s the incumbent’s party has lost seats in both the Senate and the House.
On November 8th all 435 house seats will be up for grabs and 36 of the 100 Senate seats will also have elections. Currently the Senate is split 50/50 with the Vice-President holding the casting vote.
If the Democrats could take one or two currently held Republican seats that would be a huge boost for the President and I plan to look at some of the most significant races in more detail.
Although Trump lost the 2020 presidential election he continues to hold an enormous sway in the Republican party and has sought to ensure that those who have won nominations are backers of his big lie version of what happened.
Note that the Betfair market has a definition of victory in both the Senate and House that does not allow those winners who caucus with the Democrats to be counted as members of the party when it comes to betting outcomes. Be careful when you bet.