I can see why Smarkets have put this market up, I can see why people might want to back either side. On the Yes side I can see a by election being triggered by Boris Johnson wanting to earn millions outside the glare of parliament and the register of members’ financial interests, wanting an elegant way of doing a chicken run to a safer seat, or scandal.

I said at the time if Boris Johnson hadn’t already announced his resignation he would have been forced to resign because as Foreign Secretary he met an ex-KGB agent and effectively admitted that ‘yes I met a KGB spy without government officials, no I didn’t tell officials about this and I can’t confirm that state business wasn’t mentioned.’

On the flip side I can see Boris Johnson wanting to remain an MP so he could replace Liz Truss as leader before the next election if she proves to be more flat than fizz and fails to dominate the country and party.

I’d need a bit better odds than 2.1 to bet on there being a by election in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and I don’t like tying up my money for potentially over 2 years for a 1.74 return. If the odds change then it might be worth revisiting this market.

TSE