Smarkets have this market on whether the Tories will do a 2016 and choose their new leader without the swivel eyed loonies Tory party members having the final say.

I cannot see it happening, absent a scandal after the final ballot of Tory MPs featuring the top two. Tory members would be revolting at being excluded once more, and in 2007 and 2016 shows the unhappy precedents of party leaders being crowned without members having the final say on who becomes Prime Minister.

I’d probably want something a bit more than 10s to back Yes in this market.

TSE