This could simply reflect that Johnson’s deficiencies are so glaring that they far overshadow Starmer’s strengths. But our tracker data shows his reputation is not strong: just 22% say he seems like a PM in waiting, 36% say he's "competent", 22% "strong"https://t.co/8F5q28XjKn pic.twitter.com/ljg68Fzaf9

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 8, 2022

It may seem churlish to speak about Sir Keir Starmer’s (un)electability given we’ve seen four polls this week with Labour at least 11% ahead but there’s always been a nagging feeling that Starmer’s position was distorted by Boris Johnson’s multiple inadequacies.

That first tweet is quite damning for Starmer, his popularity is based on Boris Johnson’s palpable inadequacies, so leading Boris Johnson in leadership ratings is a bit like winning an award for being the tallest dwarf.

So if the Tory Party elects someone with a modicum of competence and lacking ghastliness and the Tories could easily win the next election, anyone who served in Boris Johnson’s cabinet will be tainted by association, that’s why I think only cleanskins like Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, or Penny Mordaunt can win the next election for the Tories.

If the Tories don’t want to win the next election they’ll elect somebody like Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, or Badenoch. Sunak or Javid ensure an honourable defeat or largest party but the Tories losing power because they are too far behind and uncoalitionable.

Point 5 is key here. Starmer is eminently beatable as the below YouGov polling shows.

Competence, electability, & distance from the Johnson dumpster fire will be an election winning combination.

Overall I think this means Mordaunt, Tugendhat, or Hunt to succeed Boris

1/2 https://t.co/D3xsvIVmRI

— TSE (@TSEofPB) July 10, 2022

TSE