I really do enjoy the betting opportunities that Smarkets give us when it comes to opinion polls. Looking at last night’s poll from Opinium which gave Labour a mere 2% lead, and with another Opinium due in a fortnight I can understand why the 20 on June being the month of the next Tory poll lead will seem attractive to many.

The ongoing cost of living crisis makes me dubious on backing any Tory lead in the short term but then I remember that Tories did lead in one poll a few months after Black Wednesday. I have doubts about the Lib Dems gaining Tiverton and Honiton which may lead to a polling boost for the Tories. So I think there may be a smidgen of value in backing July.

July is coincidentally the month which could see Starmer resign if he gets a FPN and that may also tear asunder a few polling assumptions.

So I think for every pound you back on a Tory poll in June you should also stick five pounds on a July Tory poll lead.

TSE