Given that after yesterday’s locals the prime minister looks even stronger in his position there has been a marked change in the betting on when he will actually step down.

At the same time in the successor betting, Starmer has edged up because it is looking even more likely that these two will still be there to fight the general election against each other whenever that happens between now and 2024.

The next electoral hurdles will be the outstanding Tory defences in the Westminster by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton. A loss of one or even worse both seats could raise big problems for Johnson. Conversely, a failure for LAB in the former would create big problems for Starmer.

Mike Smithson