The big message from the local election results is that the Tories suffered a lot of losses, particularly in places in the South which the party once regarded as its homeland.

Even before these elections, there was very little to indicate that LAB was heading for a majority. Quite simply the polls, now reinforced by the latest results, suggest that Johnson could lose power if there’s no major change of opinion before the general election but no LAB majority.

The Tories have lost a lot of support but only a relatively small slice of that has gone directly to LAB. Instead we are seeing the LDs and the Greens picking up a lot of council seats the big trend being that the Tories are losing them.

I still think it is possible for the Tories to win the most votes and seats in the next election but Johnson having to move out of Number 10. By my calculation, this would require a minimum Tory seat loss total of 47. With that sort of result there would be enough non-Tory MPs to vote against him in a confidence vote.

Johnson’s previous victories have been against Livingstone and Corbyn – both of whom became discredited figures. Starmer might have a lot of negatives but he is in a far stronger position than his predecessor. Much of the CON vote at GE2019 came from non-Tories wanting to stop Corbyn.

In the betting Starmer is rated as a 17% chance to become next PM which looks even more like a value bet.

Mike Smithson