From PBer Cicero close to the Russian border

(This was posted on the previous thread from a longstanding PBer)

Greetings from a weary but determined Estonia. The official outlook is that we are likely to have a pretty “challenging” summer, and the latest expulsion of all Baltic diplomats in St. Petersburg and Pskov underlines the total collapse of relations with Russia. It is quite probable that the border will be closed soon. The entry of Finland into NATO before the end of May will cast the spotlight on this region, and there are concerns about provocations and attacks against the Baltic. But then the performance of the Russian armed forces so far does not inspire the fear it once did.

Estonia is rushing to collect as much help for Ukraine as it can, and many Estonians are individually sending help to the humanitarian effort. Despite the far right EKRE suggesting that “Estonia has passed the capacity for Ukrainian refugees”, places are still being found- eg, one of the large ferries that has space for 3000. I may add that there has been something of a backlash against EKRE. They, like Le Pen, are now seen as close to Putin and as a result their support is fading.

The inability to take the final redoubt in Mariupol underlines the challenges the Russians face. Ukraine is beginning to acquire an advantage in tanks(!) and with more NATO kit and training, the defenders are gaining strength. The great question is is that growing fast enough. We still do not know. Yet there are growing signs of serious trouble in Russia. We hear of mutinies and a total collapse of morale.

Putin’s appearance has been much commented on, and a medical friend of mine does seem to think that he is in some considerable discomfort, so rumours of terminal illness may be real, when you see how he looked. Likewise, the mysterious fires in various Russian defence research facilities may be an inside job. Certainly, the economic situation in Russia is getting very bad, and the likely forced default will weaken the brittle Russian economy still more. Yet they continue to double down in every aspect of the war: the savagery, the despicable propaganda and the utter hate now being poured over the entire civilised world. I said in a previous post that it feels like Russia is having a massive nervous breakdown, and honestly, this fever dream of nuclear nightmares is a profound sickness.

The turning point of the war may be drawing close, and I now wonder what the impact of a clear defeat of the Russia might be. Without a functioning army, would Putin press the button? Will anyone stop him? No one knows. There are rumours of a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine or even a planned strategic strike, with the UK or the USA mentioned as targets. My own feeling is that although Western intelligence still thinks that the war will go on for some time (and to be fair they also said that Mariupol could hold out for a considerable time which even Putin now concedes), I now think that the Russians may seek to reduce intensity of the war if they can not win in May. Another frozen conflict?

Cicero