Why I’m laying a 2023 general election
Yesterday The Times reported
When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.
While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.
He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.
Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.
“It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”
My initial reaction was to think any Tory proposing an election next year is the charge of the light brigade meets the charge of the light in the head brigade, the polling on so many metrics voting intention, leadership/satisfaction ratings, the Tories handling of the cost of living crisis are suboptimal for the Tories and Boris Johnson in particular, the starkest finding for me was this observation by Chris Curtis of Opinium.
No wonder Tory MPs are pleading for no election next year and there was talk of Rishi Sunak getting exasperated at Boris Johnson to the point where he contemplated resignation, this mood music makes me feel confident that this is not a government ready to contest an election next year, if Boris Johnson tried, he’d likely be ousted.
TSE