Ever since the Russian invasion I’ve been asked several time by friends and family if there is betting on the outcome. Quite rightly: There is not. However, while I appreciate some people might find even this column too close to the line, I want to discuss Eurovision 2022.

Previously available at odds suggesting they would just make up the numbers, Ukraine have shot to favourite status in the last fortnight. They sit at just over 2/1 at the exchanges and similar odds with bookies who are offering.

Clearly, Ukraine will have a huge amount of sympathy and should get a big boost in the viewer vote element of the final. But I wonder how big a boost they will receive from the expert juries who give half the points. On the one hand, they are human too. On the other, they are meant to be assessing the musical performance only and the Ukrainian act isn’t particularly fancied in that regard (hence the initial high odds).

Some even question if Ukraine can send an entry: Their current act is literally armed and fighting right now, but I strongly suspect they can even if a replacement entry is required or the entire country occupied.

So are Ukraine really 30% likely to win, as the odds suggest? Honestly: Who knows. They did in 2016, when the Ukranian song was a clear allusion to the Russian invasion of Crimea. But that was two year after the invasion and the song topped the jury vote while underperforming among the public, so it’s not clear how easily we can translate the success to this year.

Far more mystifying are the odds on us, the UK. Look down the list and we’re…5^th favourites?

The UK’s recent record in Eurovision is awful. Last in both of the most recent contests. Top 10 last reached in 2009. In the last decade we’ve come below 20^th more often than not – and there are only 26 entrants. What on earth are people thinking?

Again, there’s not much more than Twitter to go on. But it appears there are rumours that a Big Name has agreed to represent us. That would be quite the coup. It would also be quite the surprise.

The UK’s repeated failure has become self-fulfilling. Artists with an established track record don’t want to touch Eurovision given the record of humiliating results, and the unknowns we can recruit don’t have what it takes to compete.

Additionally, we lack friends when it comes to the voting. It’s not true that Eurovision is totally dominated by voting blocks: Just look at the variety of winners in the last decade. But it is true that voting blocks have a fair amount of influence on countries’ chances. As our record shows, we have so little reliable support that even if we have recruited a real star to compete we’ll likely struggle.

Being 5^th favourite doesn’t mean short odds: The UK is roughly 20/1 to win the contest. But perennial backmarkers in a field of 26 should be even longer than that, and there’s a big difference between a 5% longshot and a 1% moonshot. If the rumours of a big name are wrong we’ll be triple digits within weeks. If not, it’s almost certainly still a 5% profit in less than 3 months. I’m on.

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets against the UK winning Eurovision at 20/1 (laid) and Ireland outperforming the UK at evens (a Bet365 New Years Special, no longer available). You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts