A poll lead for the Tories in March?
A new month and a new Smarkets polling bet
Tonight in London at the headquarters of the Smarkets betting exchange there will be the PB 18th birthday party – the first gathering for several years. It is being hosted by Smarkets as part of a big effort by the firm to establish itself as a leading political bookmaker alongside all its other activities.
What has distinguished the firm in recent months is a range of political betting markets where we don’t have to wait months or years for the outcome. So every week now the firm picks a council by-election and invites bets on that.
The now regular “will there be a CON /LAB poll lead” within a set period is another one. The market for March is on whether the Tories can get one this month. Qualifying pollsters for the purposes of this market are Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG.
Currently it’s odds-on that the Tories will get such a lead which I think is about right.