If Sunak is facing Tugendhat then my 250/1 bet might be in jeopardy
How a CON leadership contest might work out
As I have stated before I have a £20 bet at 250/1 with Ladbrokes placed in November 2019 bet on Sunak being the next PM and have been trying to think through the dynamics of a CON leadership contest.
I am still not convinced that Boris Johnson is going to be ousted by his parliamentary party – the body that has total power here because of its ability to no-confidence the PM. This would only happen if enough names go into Graham Brady to force a ballot AND for Johnson to lose that vote.
But things remain very fragile and the polling – both leadership ratings and voting intention – look tricky for the incumbent. On current figures well over 100 CON MPs would lose their jobs in a general election.
But IF – and it is a big IF – there is an early Tory leadership election then my current guess is that the final two to go to the membership ballot would be Sunak and Tom Tugendhat. The latter being the formidable Johnson critic who is the only one so far to declare that he would be a runner.
I’ve been being through YouTube taking a look at Tugendhat and have been impressed by his public performances. He comes over well on TV and in the coming months might just get a bonus for being the first one to declare his leadership interest. If it ends really badly for Johnson then Sunak could be damaged as well.
In an early contest my guess is that Tom will be the one to represent the non-BoJo faction within the party and real change. In the betting, Tugendhat is currently a 10% chance and I have had a flutter.