Whilst few expected Boris Johnson to be the beau idéal of a Prime Minister it still feels like a shock having to write a piece about this betting market from Smarkets on Boris Johnson getting fined which says a lot about the state of his premiership.

I was tempted to back the Yes option in this market but the terms of the bet make it unattractive, I don’t think the police process will be that quick, so it makes backing Yes the only option. A 10% return in under two months might be attractive to some.

I think if Boris Johnson is fined I think that’s his premiership over which has major betting implications, as the Sunday Times reports today

Ministers will stand by Johnson for now but are clear he would have to step down if he receives a fixed penalty notice from the police for attending a lockdown party. “He would have to resign,” said a still loyal cabinet minister. “You can’t have the prime minister convicted of breaking his own laws.”

It was reported on Friday night that ‘Police have a photograph of Boris Johnson holding a can of a beer at his lockdown birthday party in June 2020…The Prime Minister is pictured standing next to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is holding a soft drink, in No10’s Cabinet Room.’

If Boris Johnson ends up a fine and if it turns out Sunak also gets a fine then I suspect Sunak’s chances of succeeding Boris Johnson evaporate for the same principle as ministers cite in the Sunday Times, instead of wondering if he’s Dishy Rishi, Tory MPs might start wondering if he’s Recidivist Rishi? Bet accordingly.

TSE