Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen.

They won 86% of the vote.

There’s no mystery as to why this is. With the by-election triggered by the murder of Jo Cox every mainstream party stood aside, with only minor parties and independents opposing Labour on the ballot. Turnout plummeted (down far more than half) as non-Labour voters largely just stayed home, but those who voted did so almost purely for the new Labour candidate.

There’s no reason to believe the same won’t happen in Southend West. And while recognising that Batley and Spen was a sample size of one, I think the prospect of a Tory blowout win is underrated by punters including our very own Mike Smithson.

It’s worth considering what it would take for the Tories to fall below 50% of the vote, which is the lowest Smarkets offer (and the bet tipped on this site earlier this week). It may sound obvious, but a majority of those who turn up will have to choose someone other than the Tories.

In Southend West the public will view a ballot paper with Anna Firth, the Tory candidate to replace Sir David Amess, and a range of fringe options. The English Democrats and UKIP are the only two options a significant chunk of voters will even recognise.

It’s essentially certain that the Freedom Alliance, Heritage, the English Constitution Party, and the Psychedelic Movement will all lose their deposits (probably by a wide margin) along with both independents running. In Batley and Spen, even the more known options fell below 5% (the English Democrats came pretty close).

The question isn’t: Are the Tories popular enough? It is: Are these alternatives popular at all?

The simple answer is No. These parties barely hold a handful of councillors between them across the whole country, and lack the media presence or resources to change that quickly. The Tories also benefit from two final factors.

Firstly, their opponents are almost universally Covid skeptics who are vocally opposed to the manner of the vaccine rollout and related measures (though I should note that some stress they are not anti-vax, just anti-rules-associated-with-the-vax). Whatever your position: This is a very minority view. Polls have consistently shown the public to be supportive of Covid rules, often believing they should be stricter than the government has imposed.

Secondly, their opponents are universally to their right. If you are a voter who normally votes Labour but always votes, there is no leftist option such as TUSC who you might be willing to protest vote for. This should further help the Tories coalesce almost all the seat’s voters in their column just this once.

I should say again that we’ve only seen these circumstances once before, and protest votes against governments are much easier to grow than protest votes against oppositions. But I suspect the Tories are more likely than not to have a day off their electoral stresses next week.

*(I mean, the Labour leadership election with Owen Smith literally took place during the by-election campaign!)

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets on the Tories to win 70-80% of the vote at 3/1 and over 80% of the vote at 4/1. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts